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Prancūzijos prezidento rinkimai : trumpa apžvalga

 Soeren Kern

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10262/france-a-guide-to-the-presidential-elections

„Kas kelia problemą, tai yra ne islamas, bet elgesys žmonių, kurie skelbiasi esą religingi ir išpažįsta religiją“, –  — Emmanuel Macron.

„Tie, kurie atvyksta į Prancūziją, turi priimti ir pripažįsti šią šalį, tačiau nepaversti jos savo šalies, iš kurios atvyko, kopija. Jeigu jie nori gyventi savo šalyje, nereikėjo čia atvykti“,  — Marine Le Pen.

„Prancūzija yra viena nacija, ir ji turi teisę pati spręsti, ką galima priimti, ir pasirūpinti, kad užsieniečiai sutiktų su jos papročiais ir taisyklėmis“, — François Fillon.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon kviečia padidinti viešąsias išlaidas, taip pat apmokęsti 90 proc. tarifu visus, kurie uždirba daugiau nei €400,000 ($425,000) per metus, taip pat padidinti minimalią algą 16 proc. iki €1,326 ($1,400) per mėnesį, dirbant 35 valandų per savaitę.

Benoît Hamon nori įvesti universalias bazines pajamas – jis nori mokėti visiems prancūzams, sulaukusiems 18 metų, mėnesinį atlyginimą 750 eurų, nesvarbu, jie dirba ar bedarbiai. Mokesčių mokėtojams per metus tai kainuotų 400 mlrd. eurų. Palyginimui – vien gynybai Prancūzija išleidžia 32,7 mlrd. eurų.

Šiandien Prancūzijos rinkėjai eis rinkti prezidento pirmame ture. Du daugiausiai balsų surinkę kandidatai susirems antrame ture gegužės 7 d.

Šie rinkimai – svarbus indikatorius, kaip žmonės vertina populiarius judėjimus ir klasikines partijas, taip pat – multikulturizmą ir masinę emigraciją iš musulmoniškų šalių.

Apklausos rodo, kad rinkimus laimėtų centristas kandidatas  Emmanuel Macron, kuris niekada nebuvo renkamas į vykdomąją valdžią.

Ifop-Fiducial apklausą balandžio 21 d. parodė, kad  Macron laimėtų pirmą turą su 24.5% balsų, su Nacionalinio fronto partijos lydere Marine Le Pen su 22.5%. Konservatorius François Fillon yra trečias (19.5%), po to kairysis Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18.5%) ir radikalus socialistas Benoît Hamon (7%).

Jeigu šios apklausos teisingos, tai jos rodo, kad dviejų pagrindinių („sisteminių“) partijų – socialistų ir respublikonų – kandidatai iškris jau po pirmojo turo pirmą kartą rinkimų istorijoje.

Antrame ture Macron, EU gerbėjas, islamiško globalizmo šalininkas, įveiktų Le Pen, kuri aršiai nuistekusi prieš ES ir islamistus tokiu santykiu  (61% to 39%).

 Taip pat apklausos rodo, kad likę kandidatai – Fillon, įsivėlęs į korupcijos skandalą, ir  Mélenchon, kuris puikiai pasirodė prezidento debatuose – vejasi lyderius Macron ir Le Pen.

 

An Elabe apklausa, paskelbta balandžio 21 d., rodo kad Macron remia 24%, Le Pen 21.5%, Fillon  20% ir Mélenchon  19.5% – rinkėjų.

Tai rodo, kad nei Macron, nei Le Pen negalibūti tikri, kad jie patkes į antrąjį turą. Aišku, kad balandžio 20 d. džihadistų ataka Paryžiuje padidins paramą Fillon arba Le Pen, kurie abu žada susidoroti su radikaliuoju islamu, ir kurie kovojo dėl tų pačių rinkėjų balsų. Kartu lieka nežinomybė – 40 proc. rinkėjų dar neapsisprendę.

Štai pagrindinių kandidatų gairęs:

Emmanuel Macron

 

Macron, 39, buvęs investicijų bankininkas, buvo socialistų prezidento François Hollande patarėjas. Jei išrinktas, būtų jauniausias Prancūzijos prezidentas, dvejus metus dirbo ekonomikos ministru Hollande kabinete, po to įkūrė savo politinį judėjimą „Marche! (Žygiuojam!).

 

Macron, kurį daugiausiai remia jauni miestų gyventojai, vadinamas „Prancūzijos Obama. Jis sako, kad nrė anei dešinysis, nei kairys, ir bando įlisti į centrą – kaip alternatyva Le Pen populizmui.

Macron yra orientuotas į verslą ir žada mažinti mokesčius už investicijas į infrastruktūrą. Jis sukėlė neapykantą vasarį, kai pavadino prancūzų politiką kolonijiniame Alžyre kaip „nusikaltimą žmoniškumui“.

Macron metodiškai kilo, kai skendo tradicinių partijų kandidatai – respublikonų François Fillon, ir socialistų Benoît Hamon, kuris yra labai nepopuliarus.

 

Macron visada siekė stipresnės Europois Sąjungos, ir visada gyrė Vokietijos kanclerę Merkel už tai, kad ši atvėrė Vokietijos sienas musulmonams – nuo 2015 m. jų į Vokietiją atvyko daugiau nie du milijonai.

Visus Merkel kritikus Macron siunčia tolyn ir sako : „Vokietija ir Merkel rodo europines vertybes – jie parodo mūsų vertybes priimdami ir apgyvendindami pabėgėlius“.

Macron taip pat tyčiojosi iš Donaldo Trampo planų pastatyti sieną su Meksika : „Ar atsimenate, kas atsitiko su Mažino linija?“.

Macron mano, kad Prancūzijos policija be reikalo gaudo ir persekioja musulmonus ir sako „Ne religija yra Prancūzijos probolema šiandien“.

 

Marine Le Pen

 

Le Pen, 48, buvusi teisininkė ir jaunausia Jean-Marie Le Pen, Nacionalinio fornto partijos įkūrėjo duktė, savo rinkimų kampaniją konstruoja ant nacionalinės idėjos. Ji kviečia sušaukti referendumą dėl narystės ES, atsisakyti euro, sustabdyti imigraciją ir vėl imti kontroliuoti Prancūzijos sienas.

 

Le Pen, kuri vadinama ‘Prancūzijos Trampu“, žada kovoti su radikaliuoju islamu, uždaryti ekstremistų mečetes, ir jėga išsiųsti nelegalius imigrantus.

 

Kovo 2 d. Europos Parlamentas nubalsavo už tai, kad atimti Le Pen neliečiamybę už tai, kad ji internete pasidalino Islamo valstybės prievartos vaizdais. Prancūzijos įstatymai numato, kad prievartos vaizdų platinimas yra baudžiamas iki  trejų metų kalėjimo ir 75 tūkst. eurų bauda.

Le Pen išplatino šiuos vaizdus, atsakydama žurnalistui, kuris palygino jos partija su islamo valstybės padugnėmis.. Le Pen paprašė pertraukos šiame teisiniame persekiojime, kol baigsis rinkimai.

 

Le Pen is also under investigation for allegedly misusing EU funds to pay for party staff, including a personal bodyguard. She has denied any wrongdoing and said the investigation was aimed at undermining her campaign. „The French can tell the difference between genuine scandals and political dirty tricks,“ she said.

 

Le Pen’s policy positions (platform here) include:

 

European Federalism: „Everyone agrees that the European Union is a failure. It did not deliver on any of its promises, particularly on prosperity and security…. That is why, if elected, I will announce a referendum within six months on remaining or exiting the European Union…“

 

Immigration: Le Pen has said that she wants to cut immigration to no more than 10,000 people a year. She has also called on migrants to adapt to French culture: „Those who come to France are to accept France, not to transform it to the image of their country of origin. If they want to live at home, they should have stayed at home.“

 

Islamic Terrorism: Le Pen has repeatedly vowed to crack down on Islamic terrorism. On February 5, she said: „In terms of terrorism, we do not intend to ask the French to get used to living with this horror. We will eradicate it here and abroad.“ After the April 20 jihadist attack in Paris, she reiterated: „We must tackle the root of the evil. It is Islamist fundamentalism, the ideology that their terrorists are harnessing.“

 

Islam: Le Pen has vowed to restrict the practice of Islam in the public square. She wants to ban all visible religious symbols worn in public, including Muslim headscarves and Jewish skullcaps. She has compared Muslims praying in the streets to Nazi occupation: „For those who want to talk a lot about World War II, if it is about occupation, then we could also talk about it [Muslim prayers in the streets], because that is occupation of territory. It is an occupation of sections of the territory, of districts in which religious laws apply. It is an occupation. There are of course no tanks, there are no soldiers but it is nevertheless an occupation and it weighs heavily on local residents.“

 

François Fillon

 

Fillon, 63, a former Prime Minister under President Nicolas Sarkozy and now the Republican candidate for France’s 2017 presidential election, has pledged to defend traditional French values and identity. „This country is the daughter of Christianity, as well as the Enlightenment,“ Fillon has said. „I will put the family back at the heart of all public policy.“

 

Fillon, who has been called the „French Thatcher“ for his conservative policies, wants to end France’s 35-hour work week, cut public spending by €100 billion ($107 billion), shrink the size of government by cutting 500,000 civil service positions, abolish a wealth tax and reduce immigration. He also wants to invest heavily in national security.

 

Fillon had been favored to win this race until he became the subject of a criminal investigation over allegations that he used government money to pay his wife and children more than €1 million ($1.1 million) for jobs they never did. He faces charges of embezzlement.

 

Fillon’s policy positions (platform here) include:

 

European Federalism: Fillon has said that he is not in favor of more European integration. In an essay for Le Monde, he wrote: „Let’s put aside the dream of a federal Europe. It is urgent to re-establish a more political functioning, so Europe can focus its action on well-defined strategic priorities.“

 

Immigration: Fillon has called for quotas limiting immigration based on the capacity to integrate. At a rally in Nice on January 11, he said: „France is generous, but it is not a mosaic and a territory without limits. It is one nation that has a right to choose who can join it and a right that foreigners accept its rules and customs. We have six million unemployed and nearly nine million poor people. Immigration must be firmly controlled and reduced to a strict minimum.“

 

Islam: Fillon has vowed to exert „strict administrative control“ over Islam in France. He has also described radical Islam as a „totalitarianism like the Nazis.“ After the April 20 jihadist attacks, Fillon repeated his pledge to crack down on radical Islam. „Any movement claiming Salafism and the Muslim Brotherhood will be dissolved,“ he said.

 

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

 

Mélenchon, 65, is head of the newly-established La France Insoumise („Unsubmissive France“), a political movement supported by the Left Party and the French Communist Party. Mélenchon, who has been called the „French Bernie Sanders,“ has campaigned on an anti-capitalist, anti-globalization platform and vowed to put an end to „economic liberalism.“ He has called for a massive increase in public spending, a 90% tax on anyone earning more than €400,000 ($425,000) a year, and an across-the-board increase in the minimum wage by 16% to €1,326 ($1,400) net a month, based on a 35-hour work week.

 

Mélenchon’s policy positions (platform here) include:

 

European Federalism: Mélenchon has pledged to redefine France’s future relationship with the European Union. He has promised to negotiate a „democratic reconstruction“ of European treaties, and to withdraw from the EU if it fails to meet his demands. „Europe, we’ll change it or leave it,“ he said during an interview with France 2 television on April 7. He has also questioned France’s continued use of the euro single currency.

 

Immigration: Mélenchon is opposed to immigration quotas. He called for undocumented workers to be legalized. He has called for re-establishing a ten-year residence permit for foreigners, and for all children born in France to obtain automatic citizenship.

 

Benoît Hamon

 

Hamon, 49, the Socialist Party nominee, was a former education minister under President Hollande but quit the government in protest of its pro-market policies. Although he defeated former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, a party heavyweight, in the primary run-off on January 29 by a margin of 58% to 42%, he is now polling last among the top five candidates.

 

Hamon has promised to establish a universal basic income: he wants to pay every French citizen over 18, regardless of whether or not they are employed, a government-guaranteed monthly income of €750 ($800). The annual cost to taxpayers would be €400 billion ($430 billion). By comparison, France’s 2017 defense budget is €32.7 billion ($40 billion).

 

Hamon, who has been called the „French Jeremy Corbyn,“ in reference to the leader of the British Labour Party, also wants reduce the French work week from 35 to 32 hours and make it more difficult for companies to fire people. He wants to legalize cannabis and impose a tax on robots and computers; the tax would apply to any technology that takes away jobs from humans.

 

Hamon’s policy positions (platform here) include:

 

European Federalism: Hamon favors further European integration, especially on social issues. He has also called for „a process of social convergence with a national minimum wage set at 60% of each country’s average wage.“ He has also called for the reformation of eurozone governance. „Only a complete revision of the European treaties could give the eurozone an institutional framework capable of correcting the founding mistakes of the Economic and Monetary Union,“ he wrote in a policy paper.

 

Immigration: Hamon has said that France does not have an immigration problem. In an interview with Le Parisien, he said: „Immigrants now occupy low-skilled jobs for which there is little competition with French workers. I think our country does not have an immigration problem.“ Hamon favors „a more equitable“ distribution of asylum seekers in Europe and believes that France can accommodate more. He wants to allow migrants to obtain work permits after three months of being present in France. He has called for doubling the number of asylum seeker reception centers.

 

Islam: Hamon has come under fire for appearing to turn a blind eye to Islamic customs. In December 2016, after France 2 broadcast undercover television footage of daily life in Sevran, a heavily Islamized suburb of Paris, Hamon defended the Muslim practice of prohibiting women from entering bars and cafés. „Historically, there were never women in the coffee shops,“ he said. He added that „the French Republic is to blame for the fact that there are social ghettos where today public spaces can be off limits to women.“

 

Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter.

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